Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Observation: Enova (ENA) Might Be a Good One

I am making a prediction.

Enova (ENA) might be a good money-making stock.

I don't know whether it is a good company. I suspect that they are speculative and have their hopes pinned on something that only might take hold.

So why do I think that it might be a good one?

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Look Out! Slippery Slope Ahead

It was just about time.

The market seems like it is beginning to slip. The news is beginning to get really gloomy.

Actually, people are NOW just starting to realize that Wall Street was trying to create another bubble. Bubbles are really great--until they POP! That happens when people start realizing that things just cost too much without any real reason.

Quick Analysis: Devon Energy Corp (DVN)

DVN: Devon Energy Corp

Recent Range: $50/share – $75/share (Current Price: 64.57, as of close of 3/29/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 3.52 (6.84, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 1.81 (2.32)
Gross Margin = 79.2% (63.2%)
Pre-Tax Margin = -56.5% (-39.0%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.47 (0.49)
Current Ratio = 0.8 (1.5)
Return on Equity = -16.9% (2.0%)
Return on Assets = -8.9% (1.8%)
Return on Capital = -10.1% (2.5%)

Analysis: DON’T BUY.

Quick Analysis: EnCana Corp (ECA)

ECA: EnCana Corp

Recent Range: $24/share – $35/share (Current Price: 30.34, as of close of 3/29/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 2.00 (1.14, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 1.22 (1.77)
Gross Margin = 17.5% (11.7%)
Pre-Tax Margin = -56.5% (-39.0%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.47 (0.25)
Current Ratio = 1.4 (1.1)
Return on Equity = 9.3% (13.1%)
Return on Assets = 4.5% (6.4%)
Return on Capital = 5.0% (8.7%)

Analysis: OK—NOT GREAT.

Quick Analysis: Southwestern Energy Co (SWN)

SWN: Southwestern Energy Co

Recent Range: $31/share – $52/share (Current Price: 40.73, as of close of 3/29/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 6.08 (6.84, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 5.59 (2.32)
Gross Margin = 69.4% (63.2%)
Pre-Tax Margin = -2.4% (-39.0%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.44 (0.49)
Current Ratio = 1.1 (1.5)
Return on Equity = -1.5% (2.0%)
Return on Assets = -0.8% (1.8%)
Return on Capital = -0.9% (2.5%)

Analysis: Unimpressed.

Quick Analysis: Petrohawk Energy Corp (HK)

Recent Range: $19/share – $28/share (Current Price: 19.97, as of close of 3/29/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 5.43 (6.84, Industry)

Price/Book (P/B) = 1.77 (2.32)
Gross Margin = 57.9% (63.2%)
Pre-Tax Margin = -164.3% (-39.0%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.79 (0.49)
Current Ratio = 0.6 (1.5)
Return on Equity = -30.5% (2.0%)
Return on Assets = -15.1% (1.8%)
Return on Capital = -16.9% (2.5%)


Friday, March 26, 2010

Test Number Two: Techinal Indicator (Part 5)

I stopped playing by the rules for this test.

I was trying to use the Slow Stochastic technical indicator to determine my "buy" and "sell" signals for Biopack Environmental (BPAC). Today, I got the "sell" signal.

Here are the stats:

Toyota: Is this stock stupid, or am I?

I don't get it.

Toyota (TM) keeps getting bad news. Their accelerator petal sticks (not always but often enough to make the news circuit). They replace the defective parts...with parts that are still defective. They seem to "hide" information.

Yet their stock keeps rising.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Test Number Two: Techinal Indicator (Part 4)

The Market just opened an hour ago, and I'm already down around 20% today. That doesn't include yesterday big loss....or the day before that.

The technical indicators keep telling me to buy, buy, buy. The MACD told me not to buy, but most of the others seem to point toward the "buy" signal.

Biopack Environmental (BPAC)
Original Buy Price: $0.29/share
Today's Price (Early AM): $0.20/share.

Let's hope this thing changes for the better, but I'm not so hopeful. I've been wanting to cut my losses for a while, but I'm trying to remain patient throughout this experiment. So far, I'm really being tested.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Test Number Two: Techinal Indicator (Part 3)

My test using technical indicators continues with Biopack Environmental (BPAC).

I bought this at $0.29/share.

Today, it sits at $0.25/share.

My common sense told me to sell at $0.27 or $0.26/share, but the technical indicators keep saying "buy" instead of "sell."

My next test will not be a OTC stock. It's not always easy to get up to the minute quotes. So I'm never very secure that I am getting the read on the technical indicators at the time I need them.

We'll see what happens. If this doesn't work, it will just be a test gone wrong--not my major investment portfolio. There is time, still, since it has gone as low as $0.08/share during the past year.

I'll continue to post the play-by-play on this one as it unfolds.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Health Care Bill Saves the Day!

So the mighty Health Care Bill finally passed the House.

Wall Street is celebrating. Times will be great now!

Doesn't the Senate have to vote on this? Oh, I know. That's a sure thing!

Wait a minute! Why is this a sure thing? Didn't the Senate stall the bill last time it passed the House? Weren't they celebrating last time the House passed the bill?

Friday, March 19, 2010

Market Upswings: What's the downside?

Bull rushes are great when you have a bunch of money already IN the market. It really is a rush to see your assets grow without you really doing very much, especially when it happens the way you planned. In fact, sometimes, these are so good, they happen more quickly than you ever envisioned, and they happen a lot more quickly than you saw coming.

However, I think there is a tremendous downside to the market running upward.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Continuing My 2nd Test

Today, I continued my second test with BPAC.
Yesterday, I bought it at $0.29/share. Today it dropped to $0.28/share. Now it's rebounded to $0.30/share.

Since I'm testing things using the Technical Screener (Slow Stochastics), I'm not selling it, yet. However, it IS killing me.

I don't know how soon I will enter another OTC stock. It doesn't seem to have enough trading volume to afford the buying/selling flexibility that I want. You cannot put in a limit; so you have to keep checking the prices 6,000 times per day. I like gathering data, but NOT THAT MUCH!!!

Plus, I don't know that I can sell it at $0.30/share. The Ask (Buy) price is $0.31/share, but the Bid (Sell) price is listed at only $0.28/share.

I'll keep you posted.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Test Number Two: Techinal Indicator, with a Twist

I had an idea I wanted to test.

I looked at a list of stocks that were really volatile (Beta Value > 10.0). There were a few.

I picked one from the list where the Slow Stochastic Technical Indicator told me to BUY.

So I bought some at $0.29/share.

Monitoring Post-Selling Movement from my First Test

Yesterday, I bought and sold Enova (ENA) for my first test using a technical indicator. For this, I used the RSI and Slow Stochastic. (Keep in mind...I'm not using very much money for my testing.)

I bought AND sold it yesterday for a nice little profit. I won't be able to retire from it. In fact, it really wouldn't even pay a day's worth of wages, but it was a nice result from a first test.

However, yesterday, I also mentioned that I would not usually sell things at that level.

I admit that the stock dropped a little. However, it's returned to the price level that made me sell yesterday. The Technical charts do NOT tell me to buy this.

I will keep you posted, but for now, my common sense--not the charts--are tingling like crazy.

This morning's price is $1.65 as of when I started writing this post

Monday, March 15, 2010

Continuing My First Test: Just Sold It

I didn't expect results THIS quickly, but Enova (EVA) jumped up around $0.20/share today.

I checked the RSI and the Slow Stochastics, and they BOTH SAID SELL. So I did.

I bought these shares at $1.48/share and sold them at $1.65/share. That's a little over a 10% profit in less than two (2) business days.

I'm curious how much further it will climb. I usually wouldn't have sold it so quickly.

My guess: It will drop a little but not enough to trigger another "buy" signal. However, I think it will keep rising after that quick drop.

I'll keep you posted.

Trying Something New: Trading Using Technical Indicators

I like to fancy myself as purely a fundamental trader. However, if I'm honest with myself, I probably use fundamental ratios to get me started, and I tend to time the market for the actual buy and sell points. Luckily, I seem to have a knack for "timing" the market since identifying patterns comes so easily for me. Numbers make it that much easier for me.

Don't get me wrong. Using "play" money, I've made mistakes. (Luckily for me, I haven't made too many mistakes with real money so far.)

Last week, I had just a little bit of money in my broker's account. So I decided to buy a speculative stock, which I've been watching for nearly a year now. I decided to use the RSI and Slow Stochastic indicators. Both of them told me it was probably time to buy Enova (ENA) @ $1.48/share. My pattern watching told me that this might not be THE lowest price, but at the time I bought it I figured that its price was closer to its near-term bottom than its top.

I'll keep you posted on how I do with this. Even if I win, I didn't invest/gamble enough for it to change my life. The good news is that if I lose, my life will be unaffected, still.

I want to keep track of this so I can get some practice using technical indicators.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Buying the Stock Based on the Product--not its Price: Toyota

I know someone who bought Toyota (TM) a couple of weeks ago.

I remember telling this person that I was looking to possibly buy TM--IF they dropped to the low 60's, if not fully drop into the 50's. During the past 1-1/2 years or so, they've been struggling with higher recall levels than usual. However, their PR has been taking HUGE hits since this whole accelerator sticking (made by supplier CTX), causing a lot of accidents.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Has Our Economy Changed THAT MUCH?

I've neglected my blog for a while.

Plenty has happened in my personal life, but that's not the point of this blog.

About a month ago, the Dow dipped below 9000. Today, it is over 10,500.

What is the difference between the economy today versus a month ago? Really?