Friday, April 30, 2010

Dendreon (DNDN): How high will it go?

Now that Provenge, the prostate cancer drug from Dendreon (DNDN) got past FDA Phase 3 approval, what's next?

The stock jumped from under $30/share to $40/share from January 2010 to April 2010.

Then yesterday, the good news hit, and the stock closed at $50/share, and pre-market indicators already push it higher, yet.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

The Baidu (BIDU) Bounce--One Time Deal or a Glimpse of Chinese Way of Doing Buisness?

Wow! A week ago, I never heard of Baidu (BIDU).

Many of you have, but for those who are not familiar with this company, it is sort of the Google (GOOG) of China. Baidu provides Internet searches using Chinese characters, which removes the need to know English--pretty big if you live in China and don't know English.

I heard there are a couple of people who live in China--say 1 billion or so. So there isn't any market, is there? Nah!

I'm learning about Baidu, still, but the Google-like connection gives it some intrigue.

You know what else makes it intriguing? Today, it jumped from $620/share or so to OVER $700. In fact, earlier this morning, it reached as high as $718/share.

What caused THAT?

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Are we that much better today than yesterday?

Great news! The Federal Reserve met and announced that they will continue to keep down the interest rate.

This might be a great decision for the country; it might be horrible. I'm not looking to analyze this right now.

I'm scratching my head over the stock market's reaction to this announcement. It seems to forget that just yesterday, the entire market tanked, because it was concerned about the Goldman Sachs fraud deal and Greece almost certainly defaulting on its loans (with several European countries heading on the same path).

So the Feds keeping the interest rate low is more than enough to erase concerns about everything yesterday?

Why is the market moving upward? Are we really that much better today than we were yesterday? (Were we really that bad yesterday?)

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Did Ford ever expect this? Did we?

A year ago, if someone told us that Ford (F) would announce a profit of over $2 Billion AND the stock would drop over 5% on that same day, what would YOU have said? Oh yeah, GM and Chrysler would file bankruptcy, and Toyota (TM) would have all sorts of highly publicized recall issues...AND Ford's share of the market would jump considerably....Stock DOWN over 5%.

What would you say?

Monday, April 26, 2010

Quick Analysis: Target Corp (TGT)

TGT: Target Corp

Recent Range: $30/share – $65/share (Current Price: 57.94, as of close of 4/23/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 0.68 (0.54, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 2.72 (2.85)
Gross Margin = 30.3% (25.3%)
Pre-Tax Margin = 5.9% (5.3%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 1.10 (0.61)
Current Ratio = 1.6 (1.1)
Return on Equity = 17.1% (19.4%)
Return on Assets = 5.6% (8.1%)
Return on Capital = 7.4% (12.3%)

Analysis: Obviously, Target is a very well known company.

However, as a stock, Target is in an ultra-competitive big box retail industry, which does not have a lot of upside for its stock holders.

Quick Analysis: Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)

WMT: Wal-Mart Stores Inc

Recent Range: $45/share – $60/share (Current Price: 54.53, as of close of 4/23/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 0.50 (0.54, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 2.90 (2.85)
Gross Margin = 24.8% (25.3%)
Pre-Tax Margin = 5.4% (5.3%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.58 (0.61)
Current Ratio = 0.9 (1.1)
Return on Equity = 21.2% (19.4%)
Return on Assets = 8.9% (8.1%)
Return on Capital = 13.7% (12.3%)

Analysis: Obviously, Wal-Mart is a very well run company, but...

Friday, April 23, 2010

The Downside to Covered Calls

Covered calls are an awesome way to create income from stock that you already own.

For people who do not know what covered call options are, I'll explain them quickly here.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Suggested General Investment Approach

I am going to tell you a "secret" that seems so simple, that you won't be probably won't be all that excited about it once you read it, because it's common sense.

I have three (3) main rules of investing:
  1. Only invest in things that you know.
  2. Only invest in them when the price is good.
  3. Trust yourself, and invest what you can in it.
This is true for EVERY type of investing, not only for stock.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Quick Analysis: Rexahn Pharmaceuticals Corp (RNN)

RNN: Rexahn Pharmaceuticals Corp

Recent Range: $1.25/share - $3.50/share (Current Price: 2.50, as of close of 4/20/10)
Price/Sales (P/S) = 2782.05 (1002.08, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 25.22 (6.16)
Gross Margin = Not Available
Pre-Tax Margin = -8,516.6% (-4,752.1%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.00 (0.36)
Current Ratio = 9.9 (6.0)
Return on Equity = -118.2% (-8.1%)
Return on Assets = -90.6% (-20.9%)

Analysis: This is not one of those “sure bets,” unless you mean a sure bet to lose.

Bank on this: Huntington Bank (HBAN)

Wow! I can't say that I expected THIS!

Huntington Bank (HBAN) announced their 2010 1Q Earnings today, and they were expected to have a small loss. Instead, they announced a PROFIT.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Quick Analysis: Radient Pharmaceuticals Corp (RPC)

RPC: Radient Pharmaceuticals Corp

Recent Range: $0.25/share - $2.00/share (Current Price: 1.21, as of close of 4/20/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 1.17 (35.14, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 0.98 (4.60)
Gross Margin = 46.4% (59.8%)
Pre-Tax Margin = -47.6% (-446.4%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.08 (0.30)
Current Ratio = 0.1 (3.0)
Return on Equity = -34.0% (18.4%)
Return on Assets = -32.8% (8.6%)

Analysis: Based on the numbers, this is not something that I would recommend.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Quick Analysis: National Retail Properties (NNN)

NNN: National Retail Properties

Recent Range: $14/share – $25/share (Current Price: 23.63, as of close of 4/19/10)

Price/Sales (P/S) = 8.38 (4.37, Industry)
Price/Book (P/B) = 1.31 (2.36)
Gross Margin = 94.2% (54.1%)
Pre-Tax Margin = 24.2% (8.3%)
Debt/Equity Ratio = 0.63 (1.48)
Current Ratio = Not Listed
Return on Equity = 3.3% (6.9%)
Return on Assets = 2.2% (3.1%)
Return on Capital = 2.2% (3.3%)

Analysis: OK. Seems to be a good quality company.

Friday, April 16, 2010

In case we forgot, people are sheep!

Goldman Sachs (GS) gets nailed by the SEC. The market tanks. WHAT???

Thursday, April 15, 2010

You Know You're Tough When...

ConcocoPhillips is one of the biggest oil companies. Most people fear them.

However, I think I know someone badder than them.

No, I'm not talking about Google. They might qualify, but I don't know how to measure that right now.

I'm talking about Warren Buffett.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Investment Tip: Invest in What You Know

All sorts of people have all sorts of advice how to make money. Some of it is good, and some of it is bad.

How do you sort out the difference?

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Google: A Perfect Example of Why Management Matters

Everyone notice that the market is tanking pretty badly today?

Even the highly acclaimed regional banks seem to be taking a pretty good hit today, and they've been everyone's darling for the past several weeks. I'm not sure that will change for the long term, as many of them are still available for a cheap price.

However, there is one stock that is bucking today's downward trend. From the title, you probably guessed it: Google (GOOG), and this is a company where you cannot buy even one share for $500. Depending upon the commission rate, you might not be able to buy it for a cool $600, either. That's just ONE share, and it continues to be in demand.

What makes Google so attractive?

Monday, April 12, 2010

Looks like I was wrong! Dow is over 11,000.

In a previous post, I mentioned that we should look out for the neighborhood bear. I said that the stock market acts like our economy has arrived.

Even though, there are a lot of good things in place, it's still missing some things that will take time to develop. Namely, we still need to get banks comfortable enough to gives lines of credit to businesses that will create jobs. We're going in this direction, but things haven't been in place long enough to this "new money" to filter its way through the economy, yet.

So I said to look out for the neighborhood bear.

Since that day, the stock market has gone mostly....UP. That's right! Up.

We just broke 11,000 today, and it seems like there isn't any bear in sight. Everyone and their brother (including me) figures that we are long overdue for a market dip. It hasn't happened, and it's not clear that it will.

I'm confused--officially.

Be careful of bubbles forming.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Trade Winds: Regional Banks

Today notwithstanding, it sure seems like regional banks are the flavor of the month.

The last 2-3 months have been really kind to these stocks, like Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) and Fifth Third Bank (FITB). Other bank stocks seem to be following the same pattern, too, but I don't follow those so closely.

I'm glad they are, even though I sold my shares a while ago. This might reflect that people are gaining some confidence in this part of our economy again. We'll check again a few months from now.

If anyone reading this has any insight, feel invited to comment.

Observation: Enova (ENA) Might Be a Good One-Part 2

I've continued to follow Enova (ENA), and this seems to be an endless supply of opportunity to make money chunks.

My instincts would have been to buy a bunch at $1.47/share or so that I bought earlier (and later sold) and hold onto it for a while. Ultimately, this might be okay, but I would have missed on a TON of quick profit chunking opportunities.

I'm wondering whether certain stocks attract certain people who follow certain technical indicators. It sure seems like some stocks price patterns perfectly follow the MACD. Others follow the Slow Stochastic. Even if I'm right about this, I don't know how to identify it in advance. Therefore, I haven't figured a way to really profit from it.

Perhaps, it's a good idea to see a pattern established. Then ride the train. I don't have enough experience to know how risky this approach is, though.

Test Number Two: Cheating the Technical Indicator #2

I'm still cheating my technical indicator test with Biopack Environmental (BPAC).

I'm still doing the Buy & Hold thing on this one, and it's pretty boring right now.

Buy Price: $0.29/share

Current Price: $0.19/share

The financial numbers were released recently, and they looked pretty good. I wonder whether I'm missing something here.

I admit that there seems to be a limited amount of profit on environmentally friendly food packaging material, but we DO eat a lot of food on this planet. I imagine that someone would have to sell a whole lot to make a modest amount of profit, though.

I'll keep you posted.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Test Number Two: Cheating the Technical Indicator (Part 2)

I'm still holding onto Biopack Environmental (BPAC), and I'm still cheating.

I'm not using the Slow Stochastic technical indicator. I'm using that ol' buy and hold method now.

I have to admit, it's certainly not as fun to just sit there and hold onto something. Trading is really pretty fun.

However, with this one, I'm learning that it's probably the right thing to do.