Tuesday, May 25, 2010

European struggles are making people scared. The Dow is below 10000. Get out your checkbook, stockholders!

The Dow went below 10000. I don't know how much more it will drop...and it might drop more.

There are a lot of people panicking about the whole European debt situation. There is plenty of reason to pay attention to what is happening there, but it should only affect us--not decimate us.


Maybe I'm overlooking something really important, but here is what I understand:
  • If Greece receives a bailout, then Portugal, Spain, and Ireland will look for this, too.
  • Spain is too big to fail.
  • Germany is paying for the bulk of the bailout.
  • These things will drive down the value of the Euro.
  • A lower Euro will make the dollar seem "stronger."
  • This will make the US exports to Europe more costly.
  • This will decrease orders of products being shipped to Europe from the US.
  • This will cause production to be reduced by maybe 10% or so--not 100% like people seem to assume.
  • US production has been rising.
  • Non-European exports have continued to rise steadily, helping offset reductions in production for Europe.
  • Some individual banks have some debt tied to several struggling European nations.
  • This will cause some banks to feel some pain, but the US Economic system will not be brought to its knees like what happened with Lehman Bros. when it failed.
  • People are panicking causing US Treasury Bonds to increase and US stocks to decrease.
Conclusion: People are overreacting. This is awesome for stock buyers.

Fearless Prediction: Dow will NOT be under 10000 five (5) years from now in 2015.

Suggested Action: Start looking for great buys in the stock market. People's reaction to the market can make you rich in the not-so-far future.

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