Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Did Ford ever expect this? Did we?

A year ago, if someone told us that Ford (F) would announce a profit of over $2 Billion AND the stock would drop over 5% on that same day, what would YOU have said? Oh yeah, GM and Chrysler would file bankruptcy, and Toyota (TM) would have all sorts of highly publicized recall issues...AND Ford's share of the market would jump considerably....Stock DOWN over 5%.

What would you say?

I would have said IMPOSSIBLE...You're nuts! One, all of those things WON'T happen, and if they did, how high would Ford stock be? I wouldn't be asking how much the stock would drop.

Of course, I didn't imagine that the government would drag Goldman Sachs through a fraud case. I didn't envision Greece having substantial problems with Portugal seeming to begin walking down the same financial path. I didn't forsee raw material prices rising quickly in this economy.

Still...even with all of this, I'm so impressed that Ford posted ANY profit. I'm amazed that they rattled off a number as large as $2 BILLION for their profit. Actually, it was a little higher than that.

I think the real question is...How high can (and should) Ford stock's price reach? by when?

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